New Poll Shows Shoffner Closes Gap, Signals Competitive U.S. Senate Race in Arkansas

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (August 5, 2026) — A new statewide poll of likely Arkansas voters

shows the race for the U.S. Senate is a statistical tie. Democratic nominee Hallie

Shoffner’s campaign released a polling memo showing Shoffner is closing the gap with

incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton, with just three percentage points between them, despite

more than $3 million in outside spending against her campaign.

The survey found Cotton polling at 46 percent support compared to Shoffner's 43

percent, a difference that falls within the poll's +/- 4 point margin of error, with 12 percent

of respondents still unsure.

The poll shows Shoffner has consolidated Democratic support, with 95 percent of

Democrats surveyed indicating they would vote for her. Among Republicans, Cotton

receives support from only 78 percent, while 8 percent of Republicans already support

Shoffner and 14 percent remain undecided. Shoffner also has a commanding lead

among Independent voters, securing 66 percent of their support, while 29 percent are

still unsure.

“This poll confirms what we've been hearing in every corner of Arkansas for months:

people want a Senator who will fight for them instead of playing politics as usual,” said

Anna-Lee Pittman, campaign manager for Hallie Shoffner’s U.S. Senate campaign.

“Hallie understands what Arkansas families are up against because she's lived it, and

voters are responding to a campaign focused on lowering costs, holding Washington

accountable, and putting Arkansas first.”

According to the poll, more Arkansas voters view Cotton unfavorably than favorably,

and a majority, 52 percent, say he does not deserve reelection. That includes nearly

one in four Republicans and three in four Independents.

The poll also found Shoffner is the only candidate with a net-positive favorability rating,

while 30 percent of voters do not yet recognize her, leaving significant room for growth

as more Arkansans learn about her.

"The most significant finding isn't simply that this race is within the margin of error," said

Tabitha Bonilla, Ph.D., Co-Founder and Head of Public Affairs for 2040 Strategy Group.

“It's that an incumbent senator with nearly universal name recognition remains below 50

percent while a challenger who is still introducing herself to voters is the only candidate

with a net-positive image. Those are indicators of a genuinely competitive race."

Shoffner, a wife, mother and sixth-generation Arkansas farmer, has centered her

campaign on the issues voters identified as top priorities: government corruption, the

rising cost of living and education.

“After twelve years in Washington, Senator Cotton should be running on results,” said

Pittman. “Instead, the corporate lobbyists, billionaire donors and Washington power

brokers who have backed his political career are spending millions to smear Hallie

because they know his record is weak. As more Arkansans hear Hallie’s plans to put

Arkansas first, we fully expect the attacks to intensify. Those attacks are meant to

distract voters. But Hallie isn’t running to become part of Washington. She’s running to

fight it.”

About the Poll

The survey was conducted by 2040 Strategy Group among 586 likely Arkansas voters

from July 17-25, 2026. Results were weighted to reflect the state's likely electorate by

age, sex, race, region, income and party identification. The poll has an approximate

margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

About Hallie Shoffner

Hallie Shoffner is a wife, mother, sixth-generation Arkansan, row crop farmer and small

business owner. She’s running for US Senate to fight for her neighbors because

hardworking Arkansans shouldn’t have to choose between affording their life and

enjoying it; Arkansans deserve both health insurance and access to providers; and

every community should have first-rate infrastructure and a fighting chance: Arkansas

farmers have earned a forward-thinking Farm Bill, and every family is entitled to reliably

clean water, strong schools, affordable housing, high-quality childcare and elder care,

and broadband so they can compete in a global economy.